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AUD/USD: bull's commitments and Aussie's 1-month 2.5% appreciation tested after retail sales miss

Having been at levels not seen since the middle of 2015, the AUD/USD has dropped a touch after the retail sales miss and has printed a fresh low for the session at 0.7675. 

The retail sales for December came as -0.1% m/m vs the expected 0.3% and prior 0.2%. The Q4 retail sales, excluding Inflation, came in at 0.9% q/q vs the expected 0.9% q/q and prior -0.1%. 

This data, for now, is testing the bull’s commitments after the Aussie’s relentless advance of late having appreciated every session last week in a six-day streak.  The Australian dollar appreciated 2.5% on a trade-weighted basis last month.  “The 1.7% advance on the week, the fifth weekly advance in the past six weeks, brought it to the $0.7700 area that provided to be a formidable nemesis last year,” explained analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman. However, the recent trade surplus has been a big plus, especially with the sharp increase or iron ore and coal shipments ad commodities as a whole have been supportive. “The RBA meets next week, and given the vulnerability of the market, a few well-placed words by Governor Lowe could help spur an adjustment of positions,” explained the analysts at BBH, nd said that without it, the bulls may remain in control and press ahead.

AUD/USD levels

“The measuring objective of the large rounded bottom may be near $0.7900,” offered the team at BBH, “On the other hand, a move below $0.7580 may be the first sign that the $0.7700 ceiling is still in place.”  Analysts at Commerzbank suspect that prices will need to go sub 0.7400 to alleviate upside pressure and trigger losses to 0.7312/00 then 0.7161/64, the recent lows.”

 

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